The coronavirus outbreak has resulted in labor shortages and shipment disruptions in China's supply chain. In assessing the situations of leading firms resuming factory operation as of February 10, 2020, Digitimes Research believes if the epidemic gets under control and stops escalating while more factories are able to resume operation in March, smartphone shipments by the top-4 China-based brands are estimated to fall 19.5% on year in first-quarter 2020, larger than the 11% decline forecast originally in January.
Based on Digitimes Research's analyses on the premise that the coronavirus outbreak will gradually come under control in second-quarter 2020, China will remain the world's largest market in 2020 in terms of 5G phone shipments.
China-based smartphone brands will look to boost 5G phone penetration in China by introducing affordable 5G phones and will bring 5G phone prices to the range between US$280-360 starting second-quarter 2020 with the help from Qualcomm, MediaTek and Samsung Electronics as they will begin volume production of their mid-range 5G smartphone APs.
Table 1: Key supply factors affecting 1Q20 smartphone shipments in China
Table 2: Key supply factors affecting 1Q20 smartphone shipments in China (part 2)
Table 3: Key demand factors affecting 1Q20 smartphone shipments in China
Chart 1: China top-4 smartphone brand shipment estimates, 1Q20 (m units)
Chart 2: Global smartphone shipment estimates, 2020 (m units)
Chart 3: China and global 5G smartphone shipment estimates, 2020 (m units)
Chart 4: China and global 5G smartphone penetration rate estimates, 2020
Chart 5: Global 5G smartphone shipment share by region, 2020
Chart 6: China smartphone shipment share by communication technology, 1H19-1H20
Chart 7: China smartphone shipment share by AP supplier, 2H19-1H20
Chart 13: Shipments by manufacturing process, 4Q18-1Q20 (m units)
Chart 14: Shipment share by manufacturing process, 4Q18-1Q20
Chart 15: MediaTek smartphone AP shipments, 4Q18-1Q20 (m units)
Chart 16: MediaTek shipments by baseband type, 4Q18-1Q20 (m units)
Chart 17: MediaTek shipment share by baseband type, 4Q18-1Q20
Chart 18: MediaTek shipments by architecture, 4Q18-1Q20 (m units)
Chart 19: MediaTek shipment share by architecture, 4Q18-1Q20
Chart 20: MediaTek shipment share by product line, 4Q18-1Q20
Chart 21: Qualcomm smartphone AP shipments, 4Q18-1Q20 (m units)
Chart 22: Qualcomm shipments by baseband type, 4Q18-1Q20 (m units)
Chart 23: Qualcomm shipment share by baseband type, 4Q18-1Q20
Chart 24: Qualcomm shipments by architecture, 4Q18-1Q20 (m units)
Chart 25: Qualcomm shipment share by architecture, 4Q18-1Q20
Chart 26: Qualcomm shipments by product line, 4Q18-1Q20 (m units)
Chart 27: Qualcomm shipment share by product line, 4Q18-1Q20
Chart 28: Unisoc smartphone AP shipments, 4Q18-1Q20 (m units)
Chart 29: Unisoc shipments by baseband type, 4Q18-1Q20 (m units)
Chart 31: Unisoc shipments by architecture, 4Q18-1Q20 (m units)
Chart 33: Hisilicon smartphone AP shipments, 4Q18-1Q20 (m units)
