Major factors, such as a more than 40% increase in shipments of high-end cloud ASIC accelerators and increased wafer consumption driven by Nvidia's Rubin architecture, have helped offset the impact of the US chip export ban. As a result, global demand for CoWoS and CoWoS-like packaging capacity is expected to remain strong through 2026.
According to DIGITIMES, global CoWoS and CoWoS-like packaging capacity will grow by 48% year-over-year in 2026, reaching 1.313 million wafers.
Meanwhile, TSMC's monthly CoWoS capacity is projected to reach 88,000 wafers by the end of 2026, representing a slower annual growth rate of just 26% and reflecting a deceleration in Nvidia's high-end GPU shipments.
Key factors affecting CoWoS and CoWoS-like capacity in 2026
Industry sources believe that demand for CoWoS and CoWoS-like advanced packaging capacity will continue growing in 2026. However, US export restrictions will cause a sharp decline in AI accelerator exports to the Chinese market. Combined with ongoing capacity expansions by TSMC, Amkor, and SJ Semiconductor, the likelihood of supply shortages of CoWoS/CoWoS-like capacity is relatively low in 2026.
Chart 1: Key factors affecting global CoWoS and CoWoS-like capacity in 2026, demand/supply
High-end cloud AI accelerator shipments up nearly 30% in 2026 thanks to ASIC
Chart 2: High-end cloud GPU and ASIC accelerator shipments, 2024-2026 (k units)
Global CoWoS capacity hits 1.3 million in 2026, with 28% being CoWoS-like
Chart 3: Global CoWoS & CoWoS-like capacity and share, 2024-2026 (k 12-inch wafers)
Weakening Nvidia orders lead to slower CoWoS capacity growth
Chart 4: TSMC monthly CoWoS capacity, 1Q24-4Q26 (k 12-inch wafers)
Nvidia to stay largest customer of TSMC CoWoS capacity in 2026
Chart 5: TSMC CoWoS capacity demand by customer, 2024-2026 (k 12-inch wafers)
CoWoS-L to remain the mainstream with share rising to 75% in 4Q26
CoWoS-L sees various customers; adopted by Nvidia, AMD, and Meta
Chart 7: TSMC CoWoS packaging technologies adopted by high-end AI accelerators, 2026
Apple A20 turns to WMCM packaging, raising CoW capacity demand
Chart 8: TSMC WMCM packaging monthly capacity and details, 1Q26-4Q26 (k 12-inch wafers)
Around 8% of high-end cloud AI accelerators to adopt CoWoS-like packaging in 2025
Chart 9: High-end cloud AI accelerator shipment share by OSAT providers, 2023-2025
Amkor sees orders from Nvidia, while SJ received orders from Huawei
Chart 10: CoWoS-like player technologies and movements, 2025-2026
