Global notebook shipments are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4% from 2024 to 2029. However, potential challenges in 2025, including possible US tariffs under Trump-era policies and ongoing inflation risks, could hinder growth.
On a positive note, Japan's NEXT GIGA education procurement initiative and increased corporate demand for device upgrades are expected to support a moderate shipment growth of 3.1% that year, according to DIGITIMES Research.
Global notebook shipments are projected to peak in 2026 with 7.8% growth, driven by the readiness of non-China supply chains and robust demand for mid-to-high-end consumer devices, fueled by new MacBook models and the maturation of AI notebook applications. Growth is expected to slow in 2027 but manage a rebound in 2028 with a replacement wave spurred by the rising popularity of AI notebooks and by the end of Windows 11 updates. By 2029, shipment growth is anticipated to decelerate further.
