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DIGITIMES Biz Focus - Coronavirus outbreak
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Coronavirus outbreak
The coronavirus outbreak in China is impacting the supply chain.
IN THE NEWS
Friday 21 February 2020
Highlights of the day: MediaTek likely to see weaker growth in 2020
Everyone in the ICT sector had expected the 5G era to get off to a flying start in 2020 when the coronavirus hit. Major players continue to make deployments for 5G, but cannot be sure when the momentum will actually pick up. Now Taiwan-based chip vendor MediaTek, whose major market is in China, expects weaker growth for 2020. But Acer is confident that the notebook market is poised to have a strong rebound in demand in the second half of the year. For AMD, it is likely to see strong growth in sales, as PC OEM and brand vendors, and motherboard and graphics card manufacturers continue to step up their development projects for AMD's Zen 3-based Ryzen CPU series manufactured using TSMC's 7nm EUV process.MediaTek to see 2020 growth constrained: The coronavirus epidemic has cast a shadow over MediaTek's competitiveness in the 5G SoC market this year, as China is the chipmaker's largest market, according to market observers.Global notebook market poised for rebound in 2H20, says Acer chairman: The global notebook market is poised for a strong rebound in the second half of 2020 as the coronavirus outbreak has not resulted in severe impacts to demand in other parts of the world including Australia and Europe as compared to the harm that has brought to China, according to Acer chairman Jason Chen.Demand for AMD 7nm EUV processors remains strong: Demand for AMD's new 7nm EUV processors remains robust, with development projects for the chips commenced by PC, motherboard and graphics card makers this year set to be 10-20% higher than the levels in 2019, according to industry sources.
Tuesday 18 February 2020
Coronavirus outbreak impact: Apple warns of iPhone supply constraints
Apple has warned of iPhone supply constraints due to the coronavirus outbreak. And the iPhone is not the only Apple device whose production is being disrupted by the epidemic, as manufacturers are unlikely to start volume production as scheduled in early second-quarter 2020 for a new entry-level version of the AirPods Pro. One of the reasons for the production delays is components shortages. For consumer notebook makers, PCB supply is falling short. The outbreak has also been chilling domestic demand in China, and the local PC DIY market is bracing for a 50% or more plunge in motherboard and graphics cards sales in the first quarter.Production of entry-level AirPods Pro devices may be delayed, say sources: Production of an entry-level version of Apple's AirPods Pro now looks unable to kick off in early second-quarter 2020 as planned due to the coronavirus outbreak, according to sources from supply chain makers.Consumer notebook PCB supply falling short: PCB supply for notebooks, especially consumer models, has become tight as production at many small and medium-sized Chinese makers is being hard hit by the coronavirus outbreak, posing risks of shipment disruptions to major ODMs, according to industry sources.Mobo, graphics card sales in China to halve in 1Q20: Motherboard and graphics card sales in China are expected to plunge 50% or more in the first quarter of 2020, according to sources at local channel distributors, who also expressed pessimism about the sales outlook for the second quarter.
Tuesday 18 February 2020
Global smartphone shipments to fall below 1.3 billion units in 2020, says Digitimes Research
Global smartphone shipments are expected to reach 1.278 billion units in 2020, including less than 200 million units of 5G models, taking into account the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak on China and around the world in terms of economic growth, Digitimes Research estimates.In the best-case scenario under which the virus is under control by the end of February and factory resumption rates keep rising, China's top-four handset brands are expected to see their smartphone shipments experience an annual fall of 19.5% in the first quarter of 2020 compared to 11% projected in January.Although most assembly plants and supply chain makers of the leading brands have resumed operations leveraging inventories stockpiled prior to the Lunar New Year holiday, the capacity utilization rates of some key component makers such as those for camera lenses, chassis and touch modules currently reach about 20-40%, with a few at 50%.However, since only large-scale supply chain makers are currently running at lower capacities and a large number of small makers are awaiting approvals from local governments to restart facilities, the handset industry faces the mounting risks of supply chain disruption in March should any kind of components or materials run out of the stock.Digitimes Research believes that if the chilling smartphone demand in China turns out to be more severe than expected, the global smartphone market will tumble further in 2020.
Monday 17 February 2020
Coronavirus outbreak: Notebook components supply may dry up in March
Notebook ODMs have resumed their production in China, but face the possibility of a lack of components starting in March if their suppliers continue to be prevented from going to work by the coronavirus outbreak. Quanta Computer has started volume production at a new assembly plant in Taiwan to meet urgent needs from clients, but components shortages remain an issue. Now Digitimes Research estimates that global notebook shipments will fall 29-36% in first-quarter 2020, much steeper than previously thought.Notebook ODMs running out of components: Taiwanese notebook ODMs have already resumed assembly operations in China, but risks of supply chain disruptions in March are mounting, as inventories of many components will run out by end-February with many of their supporting suppliers still awaiting approvals from local governments to reopen their plants, according to industry sources.Quanta steps up notebook production in Taiwan amid outbreak: Taiwan notebook ODM Quanta Computer is reportedly moving to accelerate volume production at its new assembly lines in northern Taiwan to fulfill rush shipments to US brand vendors amid the coronavirus outbreak, according to industry sources.Global notebook shipments for 1Q20 to plunge 29-36% sequentially on epidemic, says Digitimes Research: Global notebook unit shipments for the first quarter of 2020 are estimated to experience a larger sequential fall of 29-36% than 17% projected earlier, as severe labor and components shortages and stagnant logistics arising from the coronavirus outbreak are derailing supply chain in China, which commands over 90% of global notebook production, according to Digitimes Research.
Friday 14 February 2020
Coronavirus outbreak impact: Digitimes Research estimates impacts on major Chinese IT sectors
The coronavirus outbreak is hitting hard the ICT industries and markets in China. Digitimes Research provides a preliminary estimation on the impacts on four major sectors: semiconductors, display panels, handsets and notebooks. Many manufacturers in China are slowly returning to work. The pace of recovery reportedly has been faster than expected though production for many ODMs remains low. For some in the semiconductor sector, the outbreak so far has had little impact on their orders. IC testing solutions provider Chunghwa Precision Test Tech (CHPT) continues to land major orders from first-tier vendors.Digitimes Research examines health of four major ICT sectors in China amid outbreak: IC design houses in Taiwan and China will see the coronavirus outbreak impact their revenues for the first quarter of 2020, and foundry and backend houses may take clearer hits starting in the second quarter, according to a study by Digitimes Research on impacts of the epidemic on semiconductor, panel, handset and notebook sectors.ODMs see better-than-expected recovery in China capacity amid outbreak: Taiwan-based ODMs including Compal Electronics, Quanta Computer and Inventec have seen capacities at their plants in China recovering in a pace faster than expected amid the coronavirus outbreak, according to industry sources.CHPT secures major wafer test orders for flagship smartphone APs: IC testing solutions provider Chunghwa Precision Test Tech (CHPT) continues to land major orders from first-tier vendors for wafer probing cards and other test interfaces for high-end handset APs despite the coronavirus outbreak, and will be carrying on its capacity expansion plans as scheduled, according to company chairman Scott Huang.
Friday 14 February 2020
Digitimes Research examines health of four major ICT sectors in China amid outbreak
IC design houses in Taiwan and China will see the coronavirus outbreak impact their revenues for the first quarter of 2020, and foundry and backend houses may take clearer hits starting in the second quarter, according to a study by Digitimes Research on impacts of the epidemic on semiconductor, panel, handset and notebook sectors.Impacts of the outbreak on IC designers have gradually surfaced in February, as China's first-quarter demand for smartphones has been revised downward by 15% from January estimates, significantly denting shipments of MediaTek and HiSilicon relying heavily on the Chinese market. In addition, demand for their 5G APs may remain weak until the fourth quarter.Foundry plants in China, boasting highly automated operations, have seen smaller impact in the first quarter as they can sustain normal runs following the Lunar New Year break. But they will see growth momentum weaken starting the second quarter as epidemic-induced shrinkages in consumer demand and delays in product launches will slow inventory depletion at IC designers, with 5G chip shipments unlikely to see significant increases until the fourth quarter.For IC backend plants, which require the support of relatively larger workforce, their operations will remain plagued by slow return of employees for at least two more weeks and it will take one more month to ramp up their capacity utilization to 80-90% if there is support of sufficient backend orders.Digitimes Research estimates that if the entire supply chain of the semiconductor industry in China can resume normal operations in early March and the epidemic can end in the first half of the year, the industry is expected to gradually return to growth track in the third quarter.LCD panel segment suffering more than AMOLEDChina-based panel makers BOE Technology, Tianma Microelectronics and China Star Optoelectronics Technology (CSOT) all have plants in Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, and they can hardly resume normal operations in the foreseeable future. Among them, CSOT is suffering the most as its 6G LTPS TFT LCD panel fab there is estimated to be running at only 30% of its capacity in the short term due to serious labor shortages. This will significantly undermine the firm's shipments to clients as the plant now account for 10% of global LTPS LCD production capacity, although the company has managed to mitigate impacts of traffic controls on transportation of raw materials and finished products.As Tianman's 4.5G a-Si TFT LCD line in Wuhan has shifted to production for industrial control and medical applications and its 6G AMOLED line there still registers low yield rates and capacity utilization, their production delays will not much affect the overall supply. BOE's 10.5G LCD line and CSOT's 6G AMOLED line are still at an initial volume production stage with global capacity contribution ratio of less than 1% each, and therefore their failure to resume normal production soon will neither much affect global supply, according to Digitimes Research.Meanwhile, CEC Panda LCD Technology's Nanjing plant, BOE Technology's plants in Chongqing and Hefei, and Century Technology's plant in Shenzhen will not restart production until February 17, with their massive shipments of LCD panels to be somewhat impacted. In contrast, Chinese AMOLED panel makers such as EverDisplay Optronics, Visionox and Royole will remain less affected as they mainly adopt imported components.Many panel makers in China are suffering insufficient supply of components, particularly PCBs and backlight modules, as many plants operated by Taiwanese PCB makers in Huangshi and Xiantao, both adjacent to Wuhan, can hardly restart regular operations due to serious labor shortages and labor-intensive production of backlight modules at most plants are also unlikely to run smoothly.Handset vendors lower 1Q20 shipment projectionsIn the handset sector, four major Chinese vendors Huawei, Oppo, Vivo and Xiaomi have lowered their shipment projections for the first quarter of 2020, with their combined quarterly shipments estimated to fall by 15.2% to 84 million units as it would take time for their supply chain partners to resume high capacity utilization while domestic consumer demand is also being eroded by the outbreak, Digitimes Research estimates. Camera lens maker Largan Precision, EMI parts supplier Triumph Lead Group and many touch control makers, for instance, can register only up to 50% capacity utilization till mid-March, and may face shipment disruptions if the epidemic fails to have eased by then.Foxconn, a major assembler for iPhones and other Chinese handset brands, is also suffering from uncertainties in employee returns to its plants in Chinese cities of Zhengzhou, Longhua, and Taiyuan, which is likely to drag down shipments of a new entry-level iPhone model by 10% in the spring and affect scheduled normal shipments of new iPhones in the autumn.Samsung Electronics should be more immune to the epidemic thanks to its heavy production deployments in India and Vietnam.Heavy blow to notebook supply and demandAs up to 90% of global notebook shipments come from China, the coronavirus has dealt a heavy blow to both supply and demand of the sector, according to Digitimes Research.Taiwan's major notebook ODMs including Compal Electronics, Quanta Computer and Wistron have resumed operations at their plants in Chongqing, Kunshan and Shanghai at low capacity utilization rates of around 20% since February 10, and the utilization may gradually pick up starting February 24 after returning employees finish a 14-day quarantine and their components suppliers restart production then.The ODMs still have to recruit new employees to fill labor shortfalls associated with low rates of returning employees, but the recruitment will be increasingly difficult as Chinese people increasingly prefer working in the service sector to the manufacturing industry.
Friday 14 February 2020
Global AIO PC shipments to experience double-digit drops in 1Q20
Global all-in-one (AIO) PC shipments totaled 3.42 million units in the fourth quarter of 2019, rounding out the volumes for the whole-year 2019 at 13.25 million units, down 3.4% on year, according to Digitimes Research's latest report on AIO PCs.Fourth-quarter shipments accounted for 26% of the overall volumes in 2019, showing no obvious sign of a seasonal pickup in demand from the business sector.Shipments in the first quarter of 2020 are expected to slip 27% sequentially and 17% on year partly due to the high comparison base in the same quarter a year ago during which vendors pre-stocked extra inventory to avoid the US tariff, Digitimes Research's figures show. The coronavirus outbreak is also dampening demand in first-quarter 2020.Among major AIO PC brands, Apple and Micro-Star International (MSI) were the top performers in shipments in fourth-quarter 2019. The top-2 brands - Lenovo and Apple - continued to see increased market shares with the two together already dominating over half of the AIO PC market in the quarter.However, the top-2 brands will both witness slipping shipments in the first quarter of 2020 due to unsatisfactory sales. Lenovo will be hit particularly hard by the coronavirus outbreak in China, its home market.Among key manufacturers, Quanta Computer will see its first-quarter 2020 shipments undermined by the order cuts from Apple and Hewlett-Packard (HP), while Lenovo's ODM partners Wistron and Compal Electronics will also see decreased orders for the quarter.
Thursday 13 February 2020
Coronavirus outbreak impact: Apple iPhone plan reportedly unaffected
Apple's manufacturing partners may not be able resume normal production in China anytime soon in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, but it does not seem to be derailing the vendor's plan of launching the next-generation iPhones in September. In fact, Apple is keen to carve out a big slice of the 5G device market despite a late start. Apple's demand for 5nm A14 mobile application processors to support its 5G devices is likely to be 50-60% higher than that for its 7nm A13, according to industry sources. Meanwhile, server memory demand remains strong thanks to orders from datacenters although the memory industry in general is bracing for worse impacts from the outbreak to come in the second quarter. Apple may still unveil next generation iPhones on schedule despite possible production delays, say sources: Apple is likely stick to its plans to unveil its next generation iPhone devices on a product event in September as it did in past years although this year's production of new iPhones could be delayed until after June due to the coronavirus outbreak, according to sources familiar with the matter.Apple reportedly in high demand for 5nm A14 to support 5G devices: Apple's demand for 5nm A14 mobile application processors (AP) to support its 5G devices is likely to be 50-60% higher than that for its 7nm A13, highlighting the vendor's determination to strengthen its market share in the 5G segment, according to industry sources.Server memory demand remains strong: Server memory demand continues to be strong thanks to a pull-in of orders from US- and China-based datacenter and server vendors, which will help sustain contract price growth in the second quarter, according to sources at memory module makers.Memory industry faces even harsher impact in 2Q20: Challenges arising from the coronavirus outbreak may become severe in the second quarter, according to sources in the memory industry, which may suffer from upstream material shortages starting later this month.
Thursday 13 February 2020
Taiwan LCD TV shipments to tumble in 1Q20, says Digitimes Research
Shipments of LCD TVs by Taiwan-based makers are expected to fall below five million units in the first quarter of 2020, down nearly 44% on quarter and over 20% on year, affected by the coronavirus outbreak and seasonality, Digitimes Research estimates.In the fourth quarter of 2019, Taiwan's LCD TV shipments came to 8.48 million units, up 14.7% sequentially but down 12.6% from a year earlier, Digitimes Research figures show. The sequential gains were driven by peak-season effects.The ratio of shipments to Europe increased significantly in the fourth quarter of 2019 thanks to efforts by TPV Technology and Foxconn Electronics to ramp up shipments to the area. While the ratio of those shipped to North America remained flat, shipments to Asian markets have continued to decline since the second quarter of 2019.Meanwhile, shipments of over 50-inch TVs for the first time accounted for over 50% of Taiwan's TV shipments in the fourth quarter, while the ratio of 32-inch models showed a significant decline.TPV and Foxconn remained the top-two vendors in the fourth quarter but with their combined share falling to 63.3% from the 67.5% a quarter earlier, as fellow companies Innolux and Amtran Technology, which took third and fourth places respectively, both posted higher shipment growth in the quarter.
Wednesday 12 February 2020
Coronavirus outbreak impact: Apple reportedly raising production in Taiwan
Production disruption in China is everyone's nightmare in the IT supply chain in the wake of the coronavirus. Many makers are raising their production outside of China, and Apple reportedly is shifting its oreders to assembly lines in Taiwan for an array of products. But for Taiwan-based Foxconn - Apple's major partner for making its iPhone devices in China - the epidemic is creating tremendous pressure on its production at its plants that employ hundreds of thousdands of workers - managment of whom would be a big challenge as far as health monitoring is concerned. The outlook of Foxconn's sales in first-quarter 2020 is rather gloomy. At any rate, global handset shipments are likely to fall sharply even if the virus can be contained at the end of June.Apple reportedly to shift orders for new devices to assembly lines in Taiwan: Apple is mulling shifting more assembly orders for its new models slated for launch in the first half of 2020 to factories in Taiwan mainly to diversify production risks associated with the ongoing coronavirus outbreak, according to industry sources.Foxconn sees 1Q20 revenues come under pressure: Foxconn Electronics is likely to have its first-quarter revenues hit by the fallout from coronavirus, according to industry sources.Global handset sales still face steep fall even if outbreak can be contained by June: China's coronavirus outbreak is set to have far-reaching impacts on the global IT industry and could undermine global demand to a great extent if related supply chains are cut off, according to Colley Hwang, president of Digitimes.