2H 2012 notebook market trends and shipment forecast

Global economic turmoil has seriously impacted growth in the PC market and it will remain weak (2Q-3Q) leading up to the launch of Windows 8, whose initial benefit will mainly be satisfying delayed demand from the third quarter. For the year, global shipments will reach 207 million, a growth rate of only 2.1% from 2011. The breakdown in notebook shipments between the first and second half of the year will be in a ratio of 47:53.

Notebooks with special form factors are still waiting for a breakthrough opportunity. For example, the penetration rate of ultrabooks is estimated to account for less than 5% of global notebook shipments in the fourth quarter, while notebooks with touchscreen control as well as models with a special form factor are both expected to account for less than 1%.

Notebooks that adopt a solid state drive (SSD) will account for 7.1% of total shipments in the fourth quarter, but around 70% of those shipments will be contributed by Apple products.

In the second half of the year, among notebook ODMs, only Quanta Computer and Compal Electronics will have a strong chance to achieve further growth. In terms of brand vendors, Lenovo, Asustek Computer, Apple and Samsung will all achieve a strong performance to help them gain market share, while HP and Dell will face a decline with Acer expected to maintain its ranking.