Going into 2023, amid macroeconomic uncertainties and rising US-China trade tensions, global foundry revenue will show a moderate on-year decline. However, driven by maturing 5G and high-performance computing (HPC) applications as well as increasing silicon content in electronics, global foundry revenue stands a chance of topping US$200 billion by 2027.
DIGITIMES Research has observed that although end devices including mobile phones and notebooks have entered a period of inventory adjustment in 2022, global foundry revenue has still performed outstandingly thanks to price hikes and LTAs. Looking into 2023, end device inventory adjustment will extend into first-half 2023. A bleak economic outlook will take a toll on consumer spending. These factors will prolong end device inventory adjustment. As a result, 2023 global foundry revenue may fall back 2% to 3%.
In the mid-to-long term, with the recovery of semiconductor demand, 5G and HPC applications taking off, electronics and automobiles coming with increasing silicon contents, electronics brands and system integrators undertaking in-house chip R&D and IDMs continuing to outsource chip production, DIGITIMES Research projects global foundry revenue will grow at a CAGR of 8.3% for the period from 2022 through 2027, with the 2027 revenue to top US$200 billion.
Table 1: Key factors affecting the global wafer foundry industry - demand
Table 2: Effects of US trade sanctions on China semiconductor industry
Table 3: Key factors affecting the global wafer foundry industry - supply
Table 5: Pure-play foundries mature nodes capacity expansions beyond 2023
Chart 1: ASML EUV lithography equipment shipments, 2015-2025 (units)
Chart 2: Global foundry services revenues, 2020-2027 (b units)
