With transportation costs rising, notebook brand vendors and channels had suppliers advance shipments ahead of schedule to meet growing demand in the second quarter of 2024, with the education market in North America seeing stronger-than-expected seasonal growth and China's market recovery picking up pace. As a result, global notebook shipments (excluding detachable models) were better than expected in the second quarter, rising 7.8% sequentially, according to DIGITIMES Research's latest notebook report covering the second quarter and second half of 2024.
However, brand vendors will still be quite conservative about placing orders in the third quarter, while new notebook models for the peak season will carry higher average selling prices (ASP). Global notebook shipments will grow only 0.9% in the third quarter compared with the relatively high base of the second quarter. Seasonal demand will be weaker than usual.
The fourth quarter is expected to see the arrival of more AI notebooks and brand vendors will also step up shipments to reach full-year targets. Global notebook shipment growth is expected to accelerate. Global notebook shipments are expected to reach 173 million units in 2024, an increase of 4.6% compared with 2023, the report's figures show.
Among major notebook brands, market leader Lenovo will step up efforts for the peak season in the consumer markets of the US and Europe during the third quarter. However, as demand weakens, Lenovo's growth will be limited. For second-place HP, the coming of the low season for education procurement in the third quarter and conservative demand from the consumer market will take their toll, resulting in a sequential shipment decline for the US-based brand in the third quarter.
Third-place Dell will see demand from the enterprise market – its major focus – continue recovering in the third quarter. Dell's keen efforts to develop Qualcomm-based AI notebooks are also expected to generate new demand. Dell will see better shipment growth than the top-2 brands.
The overall growth for major Taiwan-based ODMs in the third quarter will be higher than that of the overall market, with Taiwan-based ODMs' market share rising to 74.4%. Among them, Compal and Pegatron will benefit from brand customers stepping up shipments of consumer devices for the peak season, and their results are expected to be better than other ODMs.
Note: DIGITIMES Research treats detachable notebook products as tablets. Convertible notebooks with undetachable keyboards are considered notebooks.
