China smartphone AP shipments, 3Q 2025

Due to the traditional off-season in the first quarter of 2026, shipment momentum for Chinese smartphone application processors (APs) is expected to lose momentum in the fourth quarter of 2025, with DIGITIMES forecasting a sequential decline of 7.5%. Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2026, shipments from Chinese smartphone brands are projected to maintain low single-digit growth.

With brand vendors also stocking up in advance, AP shipments in the fourth quarter of 2025 are still estimated to post an annual increase of about 1.7%. Overall, shipments from Chinese smartphone brands in 2025 are expected to rise by about 2.6% year-over-year, driving AP shipments for the full year to grow by around 5.3%.

In the first quarter of 2026, China's smartphone market is expected to experience a decline in AP demand due to seasonal slowdown and weakening government subsidy effects. Although overseas markets will also enter the off-season, easing inflation and interest rate cuts are expected to stimulate consumer spending, lending support to smartphone sales. Overall, shipments from Chinese smartphone brands are expected to register slight year-on-year growth, while continuous restocking momentum will help support annual growth in AP shipments in the fourth quarter of 2025.