The India market is expected to see double-digit gowth in smartphone sales in 2021, but replacement demand will still be greater than upgrade demand, according to analysts.
The Indian handset market was affected by COVID-19, supply chain disruptions, and deteriorating relations with China in 2020, with shipments showing little growth in 2020 - way lower than the 8-14% range of increase between 2017 and 2019.
But Canalys estimates that smartphone shipments into India will reach 150 million and 172 million in 2020 and 2021 respectively; CMR estimates 152 million and 170 million units for the period; TechArch estimates 148 million and 168 million units; and Counterpoint Research estimates 148 million and 179 million units. According to these estimates, the annual growth rate of smartphone shipments in India in 2021 will be between 12-21%.
Analysts believe that the growth of cell phone shipments in India in 2021 will be driven by the gradual economic recovery and the fact that India still has a large number of 2G feature phone users who continue to upgrade to smartphones. While operators such as Reliance Jio may launch ultra-low-cost 4G and 5G phones to attract hundreds of millions of feature phone users to upgrade, the next major engine of smartphone shipment growth in India will be replacement rather than upgrade demand.
