In the third quarter of 2024, global notebook shipments (excluding detachable models) exceeded expectations, showing a 5.8% growth compared to the previous quarter, but the volumes are expected to slip in the fourth quarter, according to DIGITIMES Research's latest report covering the notebook industry in the second half of 2024.
Driven by trends in gaming, AI notebooks, and the new MacBooks, the overall consumer sector continued to exhibit a noticeable peak season effect in the third quarter. However, the enterprise sector has yet to show signs of improvement.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, due to the relatively uncertain global political and economic situation, coupled with the already high base in the third quarter, major brands are adopting a more conservative approach over their shipments. As a result, global notebook shipments in the fourth quarter are likely to decline by 3%.
It is estimated that global notebook shipments will reach 175 million units in 2024, representing a 5.4% growth compared to 2023. After two consecutive years of decline, the notebook market is set to return to a growth trajectory, the notebook report's figures show.
Observing the performance of major notebook brands in the fourth quarter of 2024, Lenovo, the leading brand, will shift its shipment focus back to the Chinese market. However, the weakening consumer market in Europe and North America is expected to cause a slight decline in its overall shipments. Hewlett-Packard (HP), ranked second, is likely to experience a decline in shipments of both mid-to-high-end consumer and enterprise products in the third quarter. Dell, ranked third, is expected to maintain stable shipments in the third quarter due to a lower base in the previous quarter.
Apple, ranked fourth, is expected to be the only brand among the top six to experience shipment growth in the fourth quarter, driven by the increased shipments of the new generation MacBook Pro.
The overall shipment performance of Taiwanese ODMs in the fourth quarter is expected to fall short of the global average, resulting in the share of Taiwanese manufacturers in global notebook shipments decreasing to 71.1%. Among them, Compal Electronics is anticipated to outperform other ODMs due to the rebound in orders from its top-2 clients.
