The DRAM market is shifting as falling prices due to weak demand prompt top players like Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron to adjust their strategies. These companies are pivoting toward DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and may phase out DDR3 and DDR4 by 2025, anticipating a future focused on advanced memory technologies.
According to Nikkei, sources have indicated that the three major DRAM manufacturers might cease production of DDR3 and DDR4 by the end of 2025. This move could lead to possible supply shortages post-summer 2025, with market supply largely relying on Taiwanese producers to fill the gap. A key component distributor has pointed out that the anticipated halt in production could lead to significant supply constraints, challenging market dynamics and impacting pricing strategies.
Nanya Technology of Taiwan predicts the DRAM market will bottom out in the first half of 2025 but expects recovery to begin in the second quarter, driven by rising demand, improved inventory management, and global economic stimulus. AI cloud computing demand is set to remain strong, boosting edge computing, while consumer demand will only improve slightly despite optimistic regional stimuli.
Supply-side projections indicate a surge in DRAM availability by 2025, with a significant portion of new industry capacity geared towards advancing HBM and DDR5 technologies. The current downturn in DDR3 and DDR4 prices and demand signals a strategic shift, as leading memory manufacturers commit their resources to upscaling HBM production capabilities.
Faced with weak demand for mature DDR products, Winbond Electronics is advancing its manufacturing by transitioning to a 16nm process in the latter half of 2025. This upgrade from the current 20nm process, primarily used for 4Gb DDR3 and DDR4, will enable Winbond to produce 8Gb DDR memory.
According to inSpectrum, DDR5 spot prices continue to rise even amid a sluggish market, while DDR4 prices remain stable. In contrast, DDR3 spot prices have been on a downward trend over the past few years.
