Taiwan notebook industry, 1Q 2026: 1Q26 beats expectations, but US-Iran war clouds 2Q26 outlook

Global notebook shipments (excluding detachable models) in the first quarter of 2026 performed better than expected, decreasing only 7.2% from the previous quarter, which is better than the previously expected quarterly decrease of over 13%.

In the first quarter of 2026, because channel retailers expected notebook prices to continue rising throughout 2026, the momentum of early order pull-ins remained strong, and coupled with Apple releasing multiple new MacBook models during the period, among which the affordable MacBook Neo received an enthusiastic market response, it also drove up Apple's quarterly shipment growth rate; all the above factors caused notebook shipments in the first quarter to be better than expected.

Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2026, affected by the US-Iran war, surging oil prices have triggered a sharp increase in shipping costs and the resurgence of high inflation, and coupled with rising costs of key components and their persistent shortages, it is expected that brands will raise notebook prices again in the second quarter, which is likely to affect the willingness of channel retailers to pull in orders and consumers to replace their existing machines.