Global smartphone industry, 4Q 2025

Global smartphone shipments rose 1.2% year-on-year to 338.5 million units in the fourth quarter of 2025. Weaker sales in China offset a rebound in demand across emerging markets outside China and in Europe and the US. Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2026, global smartphone shipments are projected to decline 4.2% from a year earlier, as demand softens both inside and outside China.

A continued sharp increase in memory prices from the fourth quarter of 2025 through the first quarter of 2026 is also expected to weigh on the market, prompting Chinese smartphone vendors to scale back shipments of mid- to low-end models while raising product prices, according to DIGITIMES, adding that this would bring to an end the streak of 10 consecutive quarters of year-on-year growth that began in the third quarter of 2023.

Compared to the November 2025 forecast of a 2.3% growth, DIGITIMES has revised the 2025 global smartphone shipment growth upward to 2.6%, reaching 1.225 billion units - higher than levels seen from 2022 to 2024. The revision mainly reflects stronger-than-expected demand recovery in markets outside China during the fourth quarter. Among these, markets outside China account for 76.5% of global smartphone shipments.