According to findings from China's semiconductor think tank, ICwise, the US Department of Commerce's (DOC) recent sanctions differ slightly from previous measures.
During the period from 2022 to 2023, export controls were officially announced by the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) under the DOC, which industry players then implemented. However, this time, the US government did not formally issue a ban, yet relevant wafer foundry operators have already taken action.
Whether through TSMC's proactive statements or GlobalFoundries' subsequent exposure of fines, these developments reflect the Biden administration's efforts against China. To some extent, it may also serve as groundwork for Trump to further restrict China's access to 14nm processes.
Granted, requests for TSMC and Samsung Foundry to cooperate in verifying the "wafer qualification" of Chinese customers might not entirely contradict the principle of customer service that governs the foundry business. While both companies must comply with regulations, they have not completely severed their foundry services. Instead, they review customer wafer submissions first to confirm compliance before proceeding with cooperation.
On the surface, this action is merely aimed at identifying "suspects," with most long-term cooperative "white list" customers passing the review and continuing their partnerships with TSMC and Samsung.
However, when Trump officially takes office two months later, will he act accordingly? Especially considering that newly appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio has repeatedly criticized the DOC for ineffective enforcement, allowing Huawei and SMIC to successfully advance below 7nm processes. Will the future Trump administration take this as a model to expand its crackdown?
After all, the 14nm process falls within the category of "advanced processes" as defined by the CHIPS and Science Act, and its future will depend on decisions made by the Trump administration.
The new regulations will also impact many product blueprints regarding the size and transistor density of Chinese smart driving chips. Undoubtedly, following their implementation, no one can guarantee how much longer future collaborations will continue.
Especially given that China's advanced manufacturing capacity is limited, competition is fierce, and most Chinese customers actually receive only a small share of SMIC's advanced manufacturing capacity.
