South Korean memory maker SK Hynix saw its exports of multi-chip packages (MCP) fall by nearly 30% sequentially in January 2025. At the same time, some analysts believe that after two years of rapid growth, high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is becoming more sensitive to seasonal demand changes.
According to the South Korean alternative data platform Aicel, the tentative export value of MCPs from SK Hynix's main production bases in Icheon and Cheongju was around US$1.29 billion in January.
While this represents a 105.7% year-over-year growth, it is down 29.8% from December 2024, or 19.3% if the number of working days in January is taken into account. This is the largest decrease since April 2023.
Taiwan has been a main destination for South Korea's HBM exports. In January, South Korean MCP exports to Taiwan were valued at US$994 million, a decline of 51.1% sequentially, the lowest level since May 2024.
Securities industry players noted that HBMs for GPUs used for AI research are typically shipped to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) for final packaging. The decline in exports in January reflects seasonal changes and is worth monitoring.
Some analysts believe that the HBM market is becoming more sensitive to seasonal demand. A report from iM Securities predicts that SK Hynix's HBM export volume in the first quarter of 2025 will fall by more than 10% compared with the fourth quarter of 2024, while DRAM shipments are expected to fall by 12% and NAND flash by 18%.
Samsung Electronics stated during its fourth-quarter 2024 financial report meeting that it expected HBM sales to decrease due to geopolitical issues such as restrictions on AI semiconductor exports and delayed demand caused by the launch of improved products.
Industry observers estimate that Samsung's HBM supply in the fourth quarter of 2024 was just over 2 billion GB and may only supply around 1 billion GB in the first quarter of 2025.
Based on data from Aicel, the tentative MCP export value from Samsung's main production bases in Pyeongtaek, Yongin, Suwon, Cheonan, and Asan slid by 62.3% sequentially in January. Analysis by Shinyoung Securities indicates that global HBM demand in 2025 will double compared with 2024; however, based on the first quarter, HBM revenue is likely to decrease.
