Academic and industry experts from Nvidia and Google predicted an upcoming "Q-Day", the day when quantum computing is advanced enough to break current levels of encryption and crack passwords. While this day may be years ahead, governments and companies are already preparing post-quantum cryptography (PQC) standards to prepare for this day, the experts said at the 2026 AI Expo in Taipei.
The inaugural quantum technology forum at the expo, which was hosted by DIGITIMES under the "X Forum" series, brought together industry leaders from Google and Nvidia to discuss the future of quantum computing. Unlike government-backed national quantum teams supported by the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC), this forum focused less on complex quantum mechanics or coherence times and more on practical life applications and potential cybersecurity threats.
Chaired by Ching-Ray Chang, who serves as the founding president of the Taiwan Association for Quantum Computing and Information Technology (TAQCIT), the event highlighted his significant contributions to quantum education and advocacy. Recognized globally, Chang was named one of UNESCO's "Quantum 100" members for his outstanding efforts in promoting quantum concepts.
In his opening remarks, Chang noted that AI computational power development has hit bottlenecks due to energy and electricity supply constraints, and he suggested that quantum technology could offer solutions. With ongoing efforts from tech giants like Google and IBM, some believe that AI might evolve into natural intelligence (NI) by 2030. A key concern remains: when will quantum computers be able to fully break RSA encryption?
Academia and industry figures refer to this milestone as "Q-Day." Chang estimates that it could occur around 2035. Many attendees expressed concerns about Q-Day's impact on daily life—whether bank deposits would vanish, credit and debit cards suddenly stop working, or phone calls become vulnerable to eavesdropping. They questioned why humanity pursues such potentially disruptive technology and how to guard against its risks.
Google Quantum AI software engineering manager Ping Yeh emphasized quantum technology's ability to rapidly analyze simulations, aiding pharmaceutical companies in developing better, more effective drugs—a direct benefit to patients. Regarding fears over quantum computing being able to crack passwords, Yeh believes that Q-Day could happen within ten years or sooner. Google's Chrome browser has already integrated post-quantum cryptography (PQC) to provide optimal protection ahead of Q-Day.
Nvidia's quantum computing developer relations manager Linsey Rodenbach stated that it is impossible to precisely predict when Q-Day will arrive. However, she observes an increasing number of experts across various fields applying quantum computing to their domains, leveraging quantum computers' powerful parallel processing to tackle academic and industrial challenges.
Addressing public anxiety, Chang explained that cracking RSA-2048 encryption would require approximately 5,000 perfect qubits free from error correction, a capability no current quantum computer possesses. Furthermore, the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) released PQC standards in 2024 designed to fully replace RSA to help reduce cybersecurity threats.
Article translated by Lily Hess and edited by Charlene Chen
