Poland's aspirations to become a European AI leader have hit a significant roadblock following new US export controls on advanced technology. According to the Polish Press Agency (PAP), Digital Affairs Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski had announced plans to establish an AI factory by 2025, positioning Poland as a leading force in European artificial intelligence. These plans now face uncertainty as Intel has suspended its intended construction of an advanced packaging facility in the country.
Export controls create division
The Biden administration's announcement on January 13, 2025, of new AI chip export controls has effectively created a two-tier system within the European Union. As reported by NFP, Euractiv, and other sources, while some strategic allies received exemptions, many EU members, including Poland, were excluded from the preferential list. This development has split the EU into 10 primary and 17 secondary nations regarding access to advanced AI technology.
Under the new restrictions, Poland's import capacity is limited to 50,000 high-end GPUs. The US government has indicated that countries aligning their policies on export controls, clean energy, and technology security with US interests could potentially negotiate to double this limit to 100,000 units. In contrast, companies from "trusted national entities" can apply to import up to 320,000 high-end GPUs over the next two years, with an additional allowance of 1,700 GPUs without licensing requirements.
Short-term stability, long-term concerns
Deputy Minister of Digital Affairs Dariusz Standerski revealed in a Polish Radio interview that the country's current GPU usage represents less than 10% of the new import limits. While this suggests minimal immediate impact, the restrictions pose significant challenges for Poland's long-term AI development ambitions. The Polish Embassy in Washington has sought clarification from the US government regarding these measures.
The implications of these restrictions have drawn criticism from Polish technology leaders. Piotr Sankowski, head of the state-funded AI research center IDEAS NCBR, expressed concern over Poland's classification as a secondary nation in the current geopolitical landscape. Referring to the Biden administration's extensive AI export ban documentation, Sankowski stated, "We can forget about developing our superintelligence."
Despite these challenges, Poland continues to pursue its AI development goals. In November 2024, the government announced plans to invest EUR235 million (approx. US$244.26 million) in AI initiatives, including the development of Polish large language models (LLM). However, the new US export controls may significantly impact the scope and timeline of these ambitions.