Samsung Electronics is nearing a technical milestone for its 2nm process, but yields are reportedly still below the level required for stable mass production, raising questions about its ability to secure major foundry customers for the next-generation node.
According to industry sources cited by Busan Ilbo, Samsung's 2nm yield is estimated at around 55%. This figure remains below the roughly 60% threshold widely viewed as the baseline for commercial-scale production. While the process is operational, it has yet to reach the stability needed to support consistent, high-volume output.
Yield progress but below mass production threshold
Samsung has made notable progress in improving its production efficiency over the past year. The 2nm process was reportedly in the 20% range during the second half of last year. The rise to the mid-50% range within less than a year marks a significant technical step forward.
However, yields in the 50% range still fall short of the reliability required for full-scale manufacturing. When back-end processes such as packaging and binning are factored in, effective yields may decline further, with some estimates placing usable output closer to 40%.
Given the high cost of advanced-node wafers, even small fluctuations in yield can have a significant impact on profitability and delivery schedules. Industry observers said current yield levels may limit Samsung's ability to offer competitive pricing or ensure supply consistency for large-scale clients.
Gap with TSMC and impact on customer orders
The yield gap with TSMC remains a key challenge for Samsung's foundry business. Industry estimates suggest TSMC's 2nm yields have reached the 60% to 70% range, placing it within a more stable production window.
This disparity is influencing customer decisions. Reports indicate that Qualcomm is leaning toward TSMC for next-generation production, citing yield stability and supply reliability. Samsung has yet to secure 2nm orders from other high-volume customers such as Apple, Nvidia, and AMD, according to industry reports.
Orders, strategy and path to improvement
Despite these challenges, Samsung continues to build process experience through its existing orders. The company has secured demand from Chinese cryptocurrency chip firms and is preparing to ramp production for Tesla's next-generation AI chips.
At a recent shareholder meeting, foundry head Han Jin-man said that increasing order experience could help raise yield levels. By increasing wafer starts and expanding customer engagement, Samsung aims to refine the 2nm process over time. Samsung does not publicly disclose yield figures, and multiple reports note that current estimates are based on industry sources rather than official data.
The semiconductor industry generally views a yield of around 60% as the baseline required for reliable mass production. While Samsung's recent performance marks a technical improvement, it remains in a transitional phase between development and full commercialization.
Participants said the second half of the year could serve as a key inflection point. If Samsung pushes yields into the 60% to 70% range and demonstrates production stability, it may regain momentum in competing for advanced-node orders. Until then, the key challenge is building customer confidence in its ability to deliver consistent volume on schedule.
Credit: Sherri Wang
Credit: Sherri Wang
Article edited by Jack Wu
