Forecasts suggest ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), China's leading DRAM supplier, will dramatically expand its output in 2025—far surpassing previous expectations. If current momentum holds, CXMT could soon close in on Micron's production and hit 50% of SK Hynix's output levels.
Analysts warn that the DRAM market may evolve from its long-standing "Big Three" structure into a four-player contest within the next one to two years, setting the stage for a potential oversupply cycle.
South Korea's G-enews and ChosunBiz, citing Omdia research, project CXMT's 2025 DRAM output to hit 2.73 million wafers—a 68% jump from 1.62 million in 2024.
Earlier projections anticipated just 20% growth for CXMT in 2025, but updated figures show expansion running at more than triple that rate. Alongside scaling legacy DDR4 production, the company is steadily boosting DDR5 output, mounting pressure on established rivals.
CXMT produced an average of 100,000 DRAM wafers per month in early 2024—about one-quarter of SK Hynix's output, primarily DDR4. By the first quarter of 2025, monthly volume had doubled to 200,000 wafers, with forecasts pointing to 300,000 by 2026.
A spike in DDR4 supply during 2024 drove DRAM prices downward, elevating CXMT to a credible disruptor status and challenging the 15-year dominance of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.
China's DRAM policy push narrows tech gap
CXMT's meteoric growth stems from years of government backing and strategic investment in China's domestic memory sector. Chinese tech outlet OFweek reports that both CXMT and Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) are aiming to nearly double production capacity in 2024.
Technologically, CXMT has begun mass-producing DDR5 chips. While some industry insiders claim yields are nearing 80%, others suggest the true rate may be closer to 10–20%. Still, the move significantly closes the gap with South Korean and US competitors.
Although CXMT still lags Samsung and SK Hynix by 1.5 to 5 years in DRAM tech, OFweek notes its aggressive play in commoditized segments—where scale and pricing outweigh cutting-edge specs—is beginning to reshape the global market.
Chinese DRAM makers held just 5% of global market share in 2023, but forecasts expect that figure to double by late 2025. Combined with the memory sector's cyclical nature, CXMT is nearing a tipping point where it could start influencing global pricing and supply dynamics.
Following South Korea's playbook: Can China repeat the Japan displacement?
The same strategy South Korea used to dethrone Japan in memory chips may now be coming full circle, with China's CXMT eyeing Korea's position at the top.
Founded in 2016, CXMT began with legacy DRAM and has since advanced into mainstream DDR5, signaling swift progress. Some argue China trails Korea by 3–4 years, but others say CXMT's DDR5 performance is already nearly on par.
Data from Qianzhan Industrial Research Institute shows CXMT's DRAM share rose from zero in 2020 to 5% in 2023. TrendForce projects it could climb to 12% by year-end.
TechInsights VP Dan Hutchison told the Financial Times that CXMT's accelerating growth is creating "a snowball effect"—the same dynamic that once helped South Korea overtake Japan.
Tech News notes that CXMT's momentum is now chipping away at the dominance of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, who held 96% of DRAM revenue in 2023.
A Nomura Securities analyst warned that Korean chipmakers face a new reality: low-end DRAM is being flooded with Chinese alternatives. "This isn't about tech superiority—it's about volume," the analyst said, adding that oversupply and price pressure could hit Samsung hardest.
CXMT's global footprint remains modest and China-focused, but its disruption of commodity DRAM is already driving structural shifts, echoing how South Korea once displaced Japan.
Meanwhile, CXMT is ramping up investment in high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Hyundai Motor Securities reports that Chinese firms are developing fourth-gen HBM3 and third-gen HBM2E, targeting deployment in Huawei's Ascend AI chips within two to three years.
Article edited by Jack Wu
