The quarterly investors conference of TSMC is scheduled for January 16, 2025. Along with the future economic outlook, the upcoming inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump on January 20 has sparked market speculation about the potential impact of his support for high tariffs and other policies on TSMC.
Market analysts in Taiwan predict that TSMC's performance will exceed that of the whole semiconductor industry in Taiwan in 2025, with an anticipated growth rate of 20%. TSMC is expected to reveal its positive forecast for next year's operations at the upcoming investors meeting.
At its previous investors meeting, TSMC raised its revenue growth projection for 2024 from 24%-26% to approximately 30%.
AI to drive Taiwan semiconductor sector growth in 2025
Pei-Chen Liu, a researcher at the Taiwan Industry Economics Database of the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER), anticipates favorable indications from TSMC's forthcoming investors' conference.
Liu was cited by multiple Taiwanese media sources as stating that Taiwan's semiconductor industry is anticipated to exceed NT$6 trillion (approx. US$186 billion) in production by the end of 2025, representing a year-over-year rise of 16.5%, with TSMC predicted to surpass this average.
According to Liu, AI will continue to fuel growth in Taiwan's semiconductor sector, with TSMC serving as the primary foundry for AI chips and profiting greatly from increased demand. TSMC's growth will be driven by orders for Nvidia's B200 and B300 chips, as well as demand for AI ASIC chips.
Rising demand for 3nm and 5nm chips in AI applications will drive TSMC's expansion in the coming year, according to Liu. Furthermore, TSMC's developments in 2nm technology are being closely observed and are expected to play an important role in the company's growth in 2026.
In addition, the market is particularly concerned about the potential impact of high tariff plans advocated by US President-elect Trump, who is slated to take office on January 20.
Liu commented on this issue, stating that TSMC may not be subject to direct tariffs because its semiconductors are not exported directly to the US; rather, they are sent to system assembly manufacturers. Nevertheless, an increase in import duties on products intended for the US could lead to a price increase, which could indirectly affect TSMC and the global economy.
Furthermore, TSMC's Kumamoto facility in Japan has commenced mass production as scheduled, and its Arizona fab in the US is set to initiate mass production early next year, potentially diminishing TSMC's gross profit margin. The market is focused on whether TSMC can stabilize its gross margin performance through price revisions.
In response to high customer demand, TSMC is rapidly expanding production. Market observers predict that TSMC's capex in 2024 will be slightly more than US$30 billion, and in 2025, it will be more than this year. TSMC's capital spending will remain focused on advanced process technology manufacturing capability.