Samsung Electronics has reportedly delayed the development of its 10nm sixth-generation 1c DRAM to June 2025. Initially slated for completion by late 2024, the timeline has been pushed back by six months due to ongoing yield challenges, potentially affecting mass production plans.
Market leadership at stake
Samsung representatives declined to comment on the development timeline or roadmap when approached by DIGITIMES. However, industry sources indicate that if 1c DRAM development falls short of expectations, the mass production of sixth-generation HBM (HBM4), planned for the second half of 2025, could face delays.
According to South Korean media outlet Money Today, Samsung is struggling with 1c DRAM development. While reports in late 2024 suggested the company had successfully produced its first "good die," the expected yield levels have yet to be met.
For mass production readiness, yield rates typically need to reach 60% to 70% during development. Samsung had originally aimed to achieve a 70% yield rate by December 2024, but this goal has reportedly been postponed to June 2025.
The standard product development cycle in the industry spans about 18 months. Samsung completed its 10nm fifth-generation 1b DRAM in December 2022 and began mass production in May 2023. However, there have been no recent updates on the progress of its 1c DRAM.
Samsung's 1c DRAM delays could weaken its position in the highly competitive HBM market, potentially ceding ground to rivals such as SK Hynix and Micron.
Competitors forge ahead
SK Hynix successfully completed its 1c DRAM development in August 2024 and aims to begin mass production by February 2025. Meanwhile, Micron is targeting an April 2025 timeline. In contrast, Samsung's projected completion by June 2025 could position it as the slowest among the industry's top three memory chipmakers.
The transition from development to mass production typically takes around six months. With Samsung's 1c DRAM development already delayed, mass production is expected to face further setbacks. Analysts now estimate that Samsung may not commence mass production until late 2025 at the earliest.
Nvidia CEO raises concerns
Samsung's delayed 1c DRAM development could disrupt its broader plans to regain a foothold in the HBM market, raising concerns about its long-term competitiveness.
Samsung had reportedly planned to incorporate 1c DRAM into its HBM4 products. However, if 1c DRAM mass production is pushed to late 2025, the rollout of HBM4 could face corresponding delays, potentially impacting market readiness.
Samsung is now focused on accelerating DRAM development in the first half of 2025 to improve yield rates. Meanwhile, SK Hynix is taking a more conservative approach by opting to integrate 1b DRAM into its HBM4 products, ensuring stable production timelines.
According to industry sources, Samsung is making design revisions to its 1c DRAM in an effort to accelerate development. This aligns with remarks made by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang at CES 2025, where he cited the need for "new designs" as a key reason for not utilizing Samsung's HBM products.