SpaceX could go public as early as 2026 and emerge as one of the world's most valuable listed companies, with market estimates putting its post-IPO valuation at around US$1.5 trillion, as the company pushes to secure a leading position in space-based artificial intelligence (AI) data centers.
Ars Technica, citing analysis by longtime SpaceX executive Abhi Tripathi, said that understanding Elon Musk's operating style makes clear that once he commits to a direction, he deploys resources aggressively. In the current AI race, Tripathi said, success depends on who can accumulate and deploy resources faster than rivals.
Founded by Musk in 2002 with the ultimate goal of colonizing Mars, SpaceX has made significant advances since its inception. The company now handles more than 90 percent of global orbital launch missions, operates close to 90 percent of satellites in orbit, and supports the majority of US government activities in space.
More importantly, through its Starship program, SpaceX is developing what it aims to be the first spacecraft capable of transporting humans and cargo to Mars.
Launch dominance
If SpaceX moves quickly, it could take a dominant position in the space-based AI data center sector by deploying solar-powered AI systems in orbit. These systems could support chatbots or autonomous driving training at a lower cost by drawing on solar energy and operating in the cold vacuum of space.
Barron's, citing a recent Deutsche Bank report, said companies including OpenAI, Jeff Bezos-backed Blue Origin, and Google are all seeking ways to build data centers in space. Compared with these rivals, SpaceX holds two key trump cards.
The first is its near monopoly in space launch services. SpaceX completes more than half of global orbital launches each year. Excluding launches by China, its share rises to nearly 70%, with payload tonnage far exceeding that level. Whether for AI, wireless communications, or defense applications, SpaceX can deploy satellites into orbit faster than any competitor.
The second trump card is Musk himself. He also leads Tesla, which is working to apply AI to machines, and founded xAI, which competes with OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Gemini.
Infrastructure constraints
SpaceX's biggest innovation is reusable rockets, which have sharply reduced the cost of accessing space. The Starship rocket system now under testing is designed to keep costs within a few hundred dollars.
As AI drives a surge in computing demand, data centers on Earth are increasingly constrained by power supply, cooling, and latency. In space, cold temperatures, constant sunlight in suitable orbits, and laser performance in a vacuum can even surpass fiber-optic cables.
Geopolitical liabilities
However, as SpaceX moves toward a public listing, Musk's role as the company's greatest asset may also become a source of risk.
Geopolitics is one concern. SpaceX is not just a launch provider. Its satellites influence battlefield communications, and Starlink terminals have already affected conflicts and diplomatic negotiations. If SpaceX goes public, it would sit at the intersection of markets, military interests, and foreign policy.
Corporate governance
Another concern is the so-called Musk factor. SpaceX's success has been built on high-risk engineering, where rockets explode and prototypes fail. That culture may not be viable for a publicly listed company.
If SpaceX shares were publicly traded, Musk would need to balance his role as a corporate leader while explaining to analysts why a Starship explosion represents progress rather than failure.
While it is still too early to declare a winner in the space-based AI race, Elon Musk has already taken an early lead.
Article edited by Jack Wu
